PrizePicks EV and break-even calculator
PrizePicks expected value weights every possible win-loss outcome by its probability, multiplies by that outcome’s payout and subtracts the entry fee. You can enter a different win probability for each pick. The model uses standard Power and Flex rates and assumes independent picks; it does not estimate goblin, demon or correlated-entry payouts.
Expected ROI 3.80%. Equal-probability break-even: 54.66% per pick. Standard projections only; independent picks, with the probabilities you entered.
Payout tables reviewed November 6, 2026. Same-game combinations, discounted projections and promotions can change rates. Check the actual entry details.
The formula
Expected net value = Σ(outcome probability × outcome return) − stake.
Worked example
Two independent 50% picks in a standard 3x Power entry return 0.75 per unit staked on average, for −25% modeled ROI.
Standard Power and Flex payout table
| Entry | Paid outcomes | Break-even per pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2-pick power | 2 hits: 3x | 57.73% |
| 3-pick power | 3 hits: 6x | 55.03% |
| 4-pick power | 4 hits: 10x | 56.23% |
| 5-pick power | 5 hits: 20x | 54.93% |
| 6-pick power | 6 hits: 37.5x | 54.66% |
| 2-pick flex | 2 hits: 2x; 1 hits: 0.5x | 61.80% |
| 3-pick flex | 3 hits: 3x; 2 hits: 1x | 57.73% |
| 4-pick flex | 4 hits: 6x; 3 hits: 1.5x | 55.03% |
| 5-pick flex | 5 hits: 10x; 4 hits: 2x; 3 hits: 0.4x | 54.25% |
| 6-pick flex | 6 hits: 25x; 5 hits: 2x; 4 hits: 0.4x | 54.21% |
Source: PrizePicks published payouts. Reviewed November 6, 2026. Break-even values are derived assuming independent, equally likely picks. Download payout data as JSON.
Build with PrizePicks data
Connect current projections, line history and published payout tables to your application. Explore the documented endpoints and account limits.
Read API documentationQuestions about this calculator
How does the prizepicks ev and break-even calculator work?
PrizePicks expected value weights every possible win-loss outcome by its probability, multiplies by that outcome’s payout and subtracts the entry fee. You can enter a different win probability for each pick. The model uses standard Power and Flex rates and assumes independent picks; it does not estimate goblin, demon or correlated-entry payouts.
Are the probability inputs forecasts from PrizePicks API?
No. They are assumptions you supply. The equal-probability break-even figure solves the published payout table mathematically; it is not an observed player hit rate.
What is the formula?
Expected net value = Σ(outcome probability × outcome return) − stake.
Can you show a worked example?
Two independent 50% picks in a standard 3x Power entry return 0.75 per unit staked on average, for −25% modeled ROI.
Does this calculate the payout for every promotion?
No. Standard payout tables do not describe goblins, demons or promotional combinations. Enter an actual app-quoted multiplier for the exact settled outcome in the payout calculator.
Is an API key required?
No. These calculators run in your browser without signup. The API is available separately for applications that need board data and history.
Last reviewed November 6, 2026. Educational calculations, not recommended picks or a promise of profit. Responsible gambling resources.