PrizePicks hit rates
How often the over hit, measured on real lines against official box scores. Tier decides most of it, so every rate here is split by tier.
NBA over rate by market and tier
45,126 graded lines from 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.9% | 726 | 64.1% | 2,345 | 20.0% | 2,346 |
| Pts+Rebs | 46.0% | 695 | 64.2% | 2,159 | 22.9% | 2,188 |
| Pts+Rebs+Asts | 44.4% | 723 | 62.5% | 1,926 | 21.4% | 1,984 |
| Rebounds | 47.9% | 422 | 69.9% | 1,469 | 19.3% | 2,146 |
| Pts+Asts | 46.2% | 563 | 63.6% | 1,638 | 21.9% | 1,810 |
| Rebs+Asts | 49.7% | 459 | 65.6% | 1,420 | 21.3% | 1,764 |
| Assists | 44.8% | 281 | 68.6% | 931 | 18.7% | 1,814 |
| 3-PT Made | 53.9% | 165 | 66.1% | 696 | 18.3% | 1,892 |
| Steals | 50.0% | 172 | 67.0% | 509 | 14.6% | 1,762 |
| Blks+Stls | 50.4% | 119 | 65.6% | 569 | 20.4% | 1,059 |
| Blocked Shots | 42.3% | 52 | 58.9% | 180 | 13.7% | 1,496 |
| Fantasy Score | 45.1% | 443 | 66.0% | 444 | 25.5% | 443 |
| Two Pointers Made | 35.9% | 231 | 56.0% | 166 | 34.9% | 172 |
| Free Throws Made | 40.7% | 214 | 50.0% | 108 | 36.3% | 193 |
| Double-Double | — | 0 | — | 0 | 9.0% | 512 |
| Turnovers | 46.9% | 113 | 60.2% | 176 | 43.2% | 185 |
| FG Made | 42.0% | 283 | 42.9% | 91 | 33.8% | 74 |
| Two Pointers Attempted | 43.2% | 273 | 45.9% | 85 | 38.1% | 84 |
| 3-PT Attempted | 50.0% | 268 | 54.8% | 73 | 41.9% | 93 |
| FG Attempted | 41.7% | 309 | 47.1% | 34 | 38.3% | 81 |
| Free Throws Attempted | 46.0% | 202 | 44.9% | 49 | 30.6% | 98 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 45.9% | 109 | 56.4% | 94 | 41.5% | 106 |
| Personal Fouls | 47.5% | 61 | 61.2% | 103 | 29.4% | 102 |
| Points (Combo) | 43.8% | 192 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 45.0% | 140 | 57.1% | 7 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 3-PT Made (Combo) | 58.3% | 96 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Rebounds (Combo) | 34.7% | 49 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Assists (Combo) | 60.0% | 45 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Triple-Double | — | 0 | — | 0 | 2.4% | 42 |
NBA players, standard lines
Over rate on standard lines for the 171 players with at least 20 graded. Samples this small say little about any one player yet.
| Highest | Over rate | Graded |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry · GSW | 89.5% | 38 |
| Miles Bridges · PHX | 87.0% | 23 |
| Mario Hezonja · CLE | 85.2% | 27 |
| Caleb Wilson · CHI | 84.4% | 32 |
| Duncan Robinson · DET | 80.8% | 26 |
| Darryn Peterson · UTA | 80.6% | 31 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. · SAC | 80.0% | 25 |
| Dylan Harper · SAS | 79.3% | 29 |
| AJ Dybantsa · WAS | 79.2% | 24 |
| Jeremiah Fears · NOP | 75.8% | 33 |
| Alperen Şengün · HOU | 74.2% | 31 |
| Fred VanVleet · HOU | 72.7% | 22 |
| Lowest | Over rate | Graded |
|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos · GSW | 0.0% | 20 |
| Derrick White · BOS | 0.0% | 34 |
| Bobby Portis Jr. · MIA | 4.0% | 25 |
| Trey Murphy · NOP | 5.0% | 20 |
| Jaylin Williams · OKC | 5.0% | 20 |
| Ryan Rollins · MIL | 10.3% | 29 |
| DeMar DeRozan · DEN | 10.8% | 37 |
| Jalen Johnson · ATL | 12.5% | 40 |
| John Collins · DET | 14.8% | 27 |
| Robert Williams III · POR | 15.0% | 20 |
| Amen Thompson · HOU | 16.3% | 49 |
| Naz Reid · CHA | 16.9% | 65 |
NHL over rate by market and tier
9,247 graded lines from 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots On Goal | 50.5% | 184 | 66.7% | 559 | 18.2% | 1,801 |
| Points | 42.9% | 77 | 73.1% | 130 | 17.7% | 1,975 |
| Assists | 69.7% | 33 | 61.9% | 21 | 16.0% | 1,587 |
| Goals | 100.0% | 1 | — | 0 | 12.9% | 1,329 |
| Power Play Points | — | 0 | — | 0 | 17.0% | 540 |
| Goalie Saves | 46.2% | 52 | 62.0% | 142 | 21.7% | 184 |
| Blocked Shots | 50.0% | 48 | 72.6% | 62 | 20.6% | 107 |
| Plus/Minus | 100.0% | 5 | — | 0 | 38.7% | 119 |
| Time On Ice | 51.3% | 78 | 0.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 2 |
| Hits | 52.5% | 59 | 77.8% | 9 | 55.6% | 9 |
| Goals Allowed | 45.0% | 20 | 61.5% | 26 | 31.3% | 16 |
| Faceoffs Won | 52.9% | 34 | 37.5% | 8 | 62.5% | 8 |
| Goalie Saves (Combo) | 35.7% | 14 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Goals (Combo) | — | 0 | — | 0 | 14.3% | 7 |
NFL over rate by market and tier
7,424 graded lines from 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 47.6% | 170 | 65.6% | 389 | 24.6% | 688 |
| Receptions | 40.3% | 72 | 67.8% | 233 | 19.5% | 507 |
| Tackles+Ast | 55.1% | 49 | 69.4% | 281 | 22.5% | 453 |
| Longest Reception | 54.8% | 155 | 64.1% | 156 | 24.3% | 453 |
| Rush Yards | 45.0% | 80 | 70.1% | 187 | 22.6% | 349 |
| Sacks | 50.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 12.7% | 409 |
| Rush Attempts | 46.9% | 49 | 69.6% | 125 | 20.2% | 163 |
| Anytime TDs | 75.0% | 8 | 50.0% | 10 | 18.4% | 267 |
| Longest Rush | 49.3% | 75 | 58.1% | 43 | 26.2% | 141 |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 41.9% | 43 | 73.0% | 89 | 20.6% | 126 |
| Pass Yards | 51.9% | 27 | 60.4% | 111 | 30.9% | 110 |
| Pass+Rush Yds | 42.3% | 26 | 60.3% | 78 | 22.2% | 81 |
| Pass Attempts | 42.3% | 26 | 53.9% | 76 | 19.5% | 82 |
| Pass Completions | 34.6% | 26 | 60.0% | 70 | 22.0% | 82 |
| Longest Completion | 76.2% | 21 | 83.3% | 42 | 39.4% | 66 |
| Kicking Points | 45.5% | 22 | 73.5% | 49 | 25.9% | 54 |
| Rec Targets | 50.0% | 116 | — | 0 | 100.0% | 1 |
| FG Made | 60.0% | 10 | 69.7% | 33 | 20.0% | 55 |
| Pass TDs | 66.7% | 6 | 57.7% | 26 | 15.4% | 52 |
| INT | 50.0% | 10 | 80.0% | 5 | 19.2% | 52 |
| Rush TDs | 50.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 3 | 32.0% | 25 |
| Completion Percentage | 50.0% | 26 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Passer Rating | 45.8% | 24 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Rush Yards Per Carry | 54.5% | 22 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Sacks Taken | 50.0% | 10 | 0.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 4 |
| Rec TDs | — | 0 | — | 0 | 5.3% | 19 |
| Punts | 54.5% | 11 | 40.0% | 5 | 100.0% | 1 |
| Rush Yards (Combo) | 50.0% | 14 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| FG Made (Combo) | 46.2% | 13 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Receiving Yards (Combo) | 45.5% | 11 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
College Football over rate by market and tier
6,486 graded lines from 2026-10-30 to 2026-10-31. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 51.1% | 221 | 67.3% | 605 | 25.1% | 661 |
| Anytime TDs | 57.1% | 7 | 47.4% | 78 | 14.9% | 1,096 |
| Rush Yards | 44.0% | 125 | 61.9% | 357 | 25.6% | 387 |
| Receptions | 49.4% | 77 | 64.9% | 271 | 18.6% | 505 |
| Pass Yards | 45.5% | 55 | 63.0% | 184 | 26.2% | 191 |
| Rec TDs | — | 0 | 50.0% | 4 | 16.9% | 296 |
| Longest Reception | 54.3% | 164 | 71.4% | 28 | — | 0 |
| Pass TDs | 25.0% | 12 | 70.4% | 54 | 17.4% | 115 |
| Rush Attempts | 45.3% | 53 | 43.1% | 51 | 29.0% | 62 |
| Rush TDs | — | 0 | 58.3% | 24 | 20.0% | 105 |
| Pass Attempts | 44.8% | 29 | 63.6% | 44 | 21.2% | 52 |
| Pass+Rush Yds | 46.9% | 32 | 69.0% | 42 | 20.0% | 45 |
| Pass Completions | 42.9% | 28 | 61.8% | 34 | 28.3% | 53 |
| Longest Rush | 42.5% | 87 | 60.0% | 15 | — | 0 |
| INT | 44.4% | 9 | 52.2% | 23 | 15.4% | 13 |
| Kicking Points | 45.8% | 24 | 50.0% | 10 | 50.0% | 8 |
| Rush+Rec Yds | 44.1% | 34 | 100.0% | 1 | — | 0 |
| Longest Completion | 57.1% | 28 | 20.0% | 5 | — | 0 |
| PAT Made | 28.6% | 7 | 40.0% | 10 | 33.3% | 12 |
| FG Made | 100.0% | 1 | 64.3% | 14 | 35.7% | 14 |
| Receiving Yards (Combo) | 60.0% | 10 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Rush Yards (Combo) | 33.3% | 9 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Pass Yards (Combo) | 40.0% | 5 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
Soccer over rate by market and tier
3,414 graded lines from 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 54.2% | 48 | 49.1% | 387 | 8.6% | 834 |
| Shots On Target | 70.0% | 10 | 53.3% | 92 | 7.2% | 580 |
| Goals | — | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 8.0% | 448 |
| Goal + Assist | — | 0 | 71.4% | 7 | 12.2% | 328 |
| Assists | — | 0 | — | 0 | 7.1% | 282 |
| Fouls | — | 0 | — | 0 | 23.7% | 253 |
| Goalie Saves | 43.9% | 57 | 67.5% | 40 | 31.0% | 42 |
| Goals Allowed | — | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 2 |
| Goalie Saves (Combo) | 0.0% | 1 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
College Basketball over rate by market and tier
2,761 graded lines from 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5% | 95 | 69.4% | 196 | 25.3% | 257 |
| Rebounds | 47.7% | 44 | 65.6% | 125 | 24.3% | 268 |
| Pts+Rebs+Asts | 45.6% | 79 | 59.8% | 127 | 25.9% | 201 |
| Pts+Rebs | 38.9% | 72 | 67.1% | 70 | 22.4% | 143 |
| Assists | 38.9% | 18 | 57.3% | 75 | 25.8% | 190 |
| Pts+Asts | 44.3% | 70 | 65.4% | 52 | 22.8% | 123 |
| 3-PT Made | 42.9% | 14 | 68.3% | 60 | 19.6% | 168 |
| Steals | 77.8% | 9 | 61.8% | 34 | 18.8% | 80 |
| Rebs+Asts | 53.2% | 47 | 60.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 5 |
| Turnovers | 56.3% | 16 | 88.9% | 9 | 29.6% | 27 |
| Blocked Shots | 42.9% | 7 | 90.0% | 10 | 15.2% | 33 |
| Double-Double | — | 0 | — | 0 | 5.0% | 20 |
| Blks+Stls | 66.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 3 | 50.0% | 6 |
MLS over rate by market and tier
2,078 graded lines from 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-01. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 47.4% | 19 | 53.1% | 196 | 9.2% | 415 |
| Shots On Target | 66.7% | 6 | 60.9% | 64 | 9.6% | 387 |
| Goal + Assist | — | 0 | 44.4% | 18 | 15.3% | 268 |
| Goals | — | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 9.5% | 252 |
| Assists | — | 0 | — | 0 | 11.0% | 209 |
| Fouls | — | 0 | — | 0 | 19.6% | 168 |
| Goalie Saves | 42.9% | 14 | 69.2% | 26 | 25.7% | 35 |
Serie A over rate by market and tier
1,813 graded lines from 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 33.3% | 21 | 46.4% | 153 | 9.9% | 364 |
| Shots On Target | 57.1% | 7 | 54.8% | 42 | 11.6% | 327 |
| Goal + Assist | — | 0 | 40.0% | 5 | 16.7% | 228 |
| Goals | — | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 12.9% | 209 |
| Fouls | — | 0 | — | 0 | 20.3% | 197 |
| Assists | — | 0 | — | 0 | 9.7% | 185 |
| Goalie Saves | 37.5% | 16 | 54.2% | 24 | 16.7% | 30 |
| Goalie Saves (Combo) | 50.0% | 2 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Goals Allowed (Combo) | 100.0% | 2 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
La Liga over rate by market and tier
1,735 graded lines from 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 75.0% | 16 | 46.5% | 157 | 9.9% | 353 |
| Shots On Target | 42.9% | 7 | 48.9% | 45 | 11.1% | 316 |
| Goal + Assist | — | 0 | 58.3% | 12 | 14.7% | 204 |
| Goals | — | 0 | 100.0% | 3 | 9.8% | 205 |
| Fouls | — | 0 | — | 0 | 14.4% | 180 |
| Assists | — | 0 | — | 0 | 10.2% | 177 |
| Goalie Saves | 38.5% | 13 | 72.7% | 22 | 13.6% | 22 |
| Goalie Saves (Combo) | 50.0% | 2 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Goals Allowed (Combo) | — | 0 | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
EPL over rate by market and tier
1,709 graded lines from 2026-10-31 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 25.0% | 20 | 53.5% | 144 | 12.7% | 338 |
| Shots On Target | 0.0% | 3 | 48.8% | 43 | 9.4% | 299 |
| Goal + Assist | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 9.9% | 223 |
| Goals | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 8.1% | 197 |
| Fouls | — | 0 | — | 0 | 17.3% | 179 |
| Assists | — | 0 | — | 0 | 4.7% | 172 |
| Goalie Saves | 23.5% | 17 | 44.4% | 27 | 17.1% | 35 |
| Goalie Saves (Combo) | 0.0% | 5 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Goals Allowed (Combo) | 66.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 2 | — | 0 |
Tennis over rate by market and tier
1,086 graded lines from 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-02. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Games | 46.3% | 82 | 62.6% | 190 | 33.5% | 227 |
| Total Games Won | 47.2% | 72 | 55.1% | 98 | 39.6% | 101 |
| 1st Set Total Games | 30.0% | 10 | 63.2% | 87 | 23.3% | 90 |
| Total Sets | — | 0 | — | 0 | 35.2% | 91 |
| Total Tie Breaks | 100.0% | 1 | 40.0% | 5 | 21.9% | 32 |
WNBA over rate by market and tier
606 graded lines from 2026-10-31. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0% | 30 | 52.6% | 38 | 20.4% | 54 |
| Pts+Rebs+Asts | 40.9% | 22 | 53.6% | 28 | 31.4% | 35 |
| Rebounds | 50.0% | 6 | 81.8% | 22 | 29.8% | 47 |
| Pts+Rebs | 50.0% | 10 | 69.2% | 13 | 39.3% | 28 |
| Assists | 50.0% | 2 | 58.3% | 12 | 6.1% | 33 |
| 3-PT Made | 100.0% | 1 | 33.3% | 9 | 11.8% | 34 |
| Rebs+Asts | 50.0% | 8 | 63.6% | 11 | 23.8% | 21 |
| Pts+Asts | 50.0% | 8 | 80.0% | 10 | 19.0% | 21 |
| FG Attempted | 83.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 6 |
| 3-PT Attempted | 83.3% | 6 | 100.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 5 |
| Blks+Stls | — | 0 | 66.7% | 6 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Points (Combo) | 37.5% | 8 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 0.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 3 | 75.0% | 4 |
| Turnovers | 50.0% | 2 | 66.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| Free Throws Made | 75.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | — | 0 |
| Free Throws Attempted | 50.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | — | 0 |
| FG Made | 40.0% | 5 | 100.0% | 1 | — | 0 |
| Rebounds (Combo) | 75.0% | 4 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Two Pointers Made | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Two Pointers Attempted | 100.0% | 3 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Steals | — | 0 | 50.0% | 2 | — | 0 |
| Double-Double | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Blocked Shots | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 100.0% | 1 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Assists (Combo) | 0.0% | 1 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| 3-PT Made (Combo) | 100.0% | 1 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
UFC over rate by market and tier
188 graded lines from 2026-10-31. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes | 40.0% | 20 | 38.9% | 18 | 15.8% | 38 |
| Takedowns | 66.7% | 3 | 71.4% | 14 | 25.6% | 39 |
| Total Rounds | — | 0 | 100.0% | 10 | 60.0% | 10 |
| Knockdowns | — | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 11.1% | 9 |
| Fight Time (Mins) | 77.8% | 9 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Submission Attempts | 0.0% | 1 | — | 0 | 50.0% | 4 |
| Significant Body Strikes | 50.0% | 4 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Control Time | 100.0% | 4 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| Significant Leg Strikes | 25.0% | 4 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
Dota 2 over rate by market and tier
35 graded lines from 2026-10-30 to 2026-10-31. A small sample can swing a lot, so read the rate with its count.
| Market | Standard | Count | Goblin | Count | Demon | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAPS 1-2 Kills | 65.4% | 26 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
| MAP 3 Kills | 44.4% | 9 | — | 0 | — | 0 |
Does line movement change the rate?
Standard lines only: the over rate when the closing line sat above, below or level with the line we first recorded.
| Line at start vs first recorded | Over rate | Graded |
|---|---|---|
| Moved up | 44.8% | 1,425 |
| Moved down | 43.8% | 1,207 |
| Unchanged | 46.3% | 4,773 |
The same numbers from the API
Results come one row per line. Hit rates come per player and stat, ready to join to the live board.
curl "https://prizepicksapi.com/api/v1/hit-rates?player=Nikola%20Jokic&league=NBA" \
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Hit rate questions
How often do PrizePicks goblins hit?
In our graded NBA record, goblin overs hit 64.4% of the time across 15,272 lines from 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-02. Goblin lines sit below the standard line, so they hit more often and pay less.
How often do PrizePicks demons hit?
Demon overs hit 20.3% of the time across 22,449 graded NBA lines. Demon lines sit above the standard line, so they hit less often and pay more.
Do standard PrizePicks overs hit half the time?
In this sample standard overs hit 45.6% of 7,405 graded NBA lines. Pushes are excluded. The sample covers 2026-10-28 to 2026-11-02 and will change as more games are graded.
How are these hit rates calculated?
We take the line at the start of the game, compare it to the final stat in the official box score, and count over, under or push. Pulled lines and players who did not play are voided and left out.
Independent data service, not affiliated with PrizePicks. Past results are information, not betting advice, and do not predict future results. See the live tier board, historical data and data for prop models.